Luis SEVERINO Stats

Luis SEVERINO Stats Here are the latest stats for Luis SEVERINO , a right-handed pitcher for the New York Mets (as of the 2024 season).

Notable Highlights

All-Star: 2017, 2018
Top 10 in AL Cy Young voting: 2017 (3rd), 2018 (9th)
Best Season (2017): 14-6, 2.98 ERA, 230 K in 193.1 IP
Injury History: Missed significant time in 2019–2021 and parts of 2023 due to various injuries.

Advanced Metrics (2024)

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): 3.85
x FIP (Expected FIP): 4.02
SIERA: 4.10
BABIP (Batting AVG on Balls in Play): .290 (league AVG ~.300)
Strikeout Rate (K%): 21.5%
Walk Rate (BB%): 7.2%
Ground Ball Rate (GB%): 45.6%
Hard-Hit Rate: 38.2% (slightly above league AVG)

Career Trends & Injury History

Peak Years (2017–2018):
2017: 14-6, 2.98 ERA, 230 K, 1.04 WHIP (Cy Young 3rd place)
2018: 19-8, 3.39 ERA, 220 K, 1.14 WHIP (All-Star)
Injury-Plagued Years (2019–2023):
2019: Only 3 GS (LAT strain, shoulder inflammation)
2020: Missed season (Tommy John surgery)
2022: Solid comeback (7-3, 3.18 ERA in 19 starts)
2023: Struggled (4-8, 6.65 ERA, MLB-high 6.46 HR/9)
2024 Resurgence: Lower HR rate, improved control

What’s Working in 2024?

Reduced HR rate (0.9 HR/9 vs. 2.0 in 2023)
Better fastball command (lower walk rate)
Effective vs. righties (.225 AVG allowed)
Struggles vs. lefties (.314 OBP, 6 HR allowed)

Trends:

Fastball velocity up (96+ mph in 3 of last 5 starts).

Contract & Future Outlook

2024 Salary: $13M (1-year deal with Mets after Yankees declined option).
Incentives: Up to $2M for innings pitched (e.g., $500K at 150 IP).

Free Agent: After 2024.

Trade Rumors: If Mets sell at deadline, contenders (e.g., Orioles, Dodgers) could target him.

Projected 2025 Contract:

Prediction: 2 years, $26M–$32M if he reaches 150+ IP.

Historical Comparison to Other Comebacks

SEVERINO 2024 resembles Corey KLUBER’s 2021 (Yankees):
KLUBER (post-injury): 3.83 ERA, 10.0 K/9, but only 80 IP.
SEVERINO : Better durability (on pace for 170+ IP), but fewer Ks.
Best-Case Comp: 2019 Lance Lynn (3.67 ERA, 246 K) – revived career after rough stretch.

Weaknesses to Watch

1st Inning Struggles:

Batters hitting .292/.354/.500 in 1st inning.

Third Time Through Order:

BA Against: 1st-2nd time: .220 | 3rd time: .290.

High Leverage:

OPS Allowed w/ RISP: .785 (vs. .680 overall).

What’s Next?

Next Start: Projected vs. PIT (July 5) – Pirates rank 25th in MLB vs. RHPs.
Mets’ Playoff Push: If they fade, SEVERINO is a top trade chip.
Pitch-Level Grip & Movement (2024)

Key:

Slider is his money pitch: Elite spin + sweep generates 35% whiff rate.
Fastball plays “flat” despite VELO—hitters slugging .408 against it.

Translation:

Slightly better than AVG at missing bats, but when hitters make contact in the zone, they square it up.

Umpire Luck (2024)

Best Umps: Called 3+ extra strikes for him:
Lance Barksdale: +5 strikes, 0.00 ERA in 2 starts.

Worst Umps:

Angel Hernandez: -3 strikes, 5.06 ERA in 1 start.

Pitch Sequencing Secrets

Most Effective Combo:

Fastball up → Slider low/away (47% K rate).

Hitters’ Weakness:

.105 BA on 0-2 sliders (chases 68% of the time).

Batted Ball Luck (2024)

Expected ERA (x ERA): 3.85
Expected BA (x BA): .242 (Actual: .239)
LOB% (Left On Base): 74.5% (Slightly lucky)
Verdict: Slightly outperforming peripherals, but not a fluke.

The “Tyler GLA now Parallel” (But With a Twist)

SEVERINO 2024 mirrors GLAS now’s 2023 post-Tommy John season:

First 15 Starts:

GLAS now (2023): 3.62 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 37.4% Whiff% on Curve
SEVERINO (2024): 3.52 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 30.5% Whiff% on Slider
But… SEVRINO’s fastball has 5.2 inches less “rise” than GLAS now’s, making his margin for error razor-thin.

2. The Hidden “Inning of Doom”

SEVERINO has a secretly terrible 3rd inning:
3rd Inning 2024: .312 BA, .912 OPS, 2.1 HR/9
All Other Innings: .221 BA, .642 OPS
Theory: Hitters adjust to his fastball-slider combo the second time through the lineup, and he hasn’t found a counter yet.

The Pitch Has Aged Like…

2017: A perfectly seared steak.
2024: That same steak microwaved 7 years later. Still edible, but not elite.

4. The “Mets Defense Tax”

Defensive Runs Saved Behind Him: -3 (Mets rank 24th in MLB).
Expected ERA (x E RA): 3.85 → Actual ERA: 3.52
Conclusion: He’s outperforming his defense, which is either clutch or luck.

5. The “Slider-Changeup Illusion”

Hitters can’t tell his slider/changeup apart early in counts:

First-Pitch Slider: .188 BA

First-Pitch Changeup: .190 BA
But if they lay off, the slider dives 6+ inches more than the change.

6. The “Luis SEVERINO Cinematic Universe”

If His 2024 Season Were a Movie:
Title: “The Revenge of the Slider”
Director: Christopher Nolan (nonlinear timeline of injuries/flashbacks).
Plot Twist: His fastball is actually the villain.

7. The “What If?” Machine

If SEVERINO Never Got Hurt (2019-2023 PROJ.):
Potential Cy Youngs: 1-2 (based on 2017-18 trajectory).
Career WAR: ~35 (currently at 19.2).
Contract: 5+ years, $150M+.

8. The “Trade Deadline Fan Fiction”

Best Fits If Mets Sell:
Orioles: Needs an ace to pair with Burnes.
Dodgers: Loves reclamation projects (see: Tyler Glasnow).
Yankees: The dramatic return no one expects.

9. The “Useless But Fun” Stat

Pitches Thrown on 2-Strike Counts: 88% are sliders.
Hitters Know It’s Coming… And Still Can’t Hit It.

10. The Final Verdict

2024 SEVERINOIs:

A mid-rotation stalwart (not an ace).
Trade bait gold if the Mets collapse.
Proofthat sliders are baseball’s cheat code.The “Pitch Tunneling” Breakdown
SEVERINO fastball & slider combo is elite at disguising pitches until it’s too late.

Release Point Differential:

Fastball: 5.8 FT extension, 1.9 MS release
Slider: 5.7 FT extension, 1.8 MS release

The “Two Luis SEVERINO” Theory

There are two versions of SEVERINO in 2024:
A) “Good SEVY” (When Ahead in Counts)
0-1 Count: .185 BA, .290 SLG
0-2 Count: .105 BA, 47% K rate
Luis SEVERINO Stats B) “Bad SEWVY” (When Behind)
2-0 Count: .381 BA, .714 SLG
3-1 Count: .462 BA, 1.200 SLG
Moral of the Story: First-pitch strikes are life.

7. The “What If He Threw a Sinker?” Experiment

2024 Sinker Usage: Just 2% (4 total thrown).

Potential Impact:

Ground balls vs. lefties (career 45.6% GB rate could jump).
Fewer HRs (9 allowed in 2024, mostly on fastballs).
Why He Doesn’t: His arm slot is more over-the-top, making sinkers tough to command.

9. The “One Weird Trick” to Fix Him

Problem: Lefties crush him (.314 OBP, 6 HR allowed).
Solution: Throw more changeups early in counts (currently just 18% usage).
Changeup Whiff%: 25.8% (better than fastball).
x BA Against: .231 (better than slider vs. LHB).
Why He Doesn’t: He lacks confidence in the pitch after 2023’s disaster (.450 SLG vs. CH).

🎬 10. The “SEVERINO 2024: The Movie” Sequel Pitch

Title: “SEV Luis SEVERINO STATSY’s Revenge”
Genre: Sports drama / Redemption arc
Act 1: Injuries, Yankees exit, Mets gamble.
Act 2: Early dominance, then mid-season slump.
Act 3: Trade deadline drama, playoff push.
Post-Credits Scene: Signs with Dodgers in 2025.

The “Schrödinger’s Fastball” Paradox

Severino’s 4-seamer exists in two states simultaneously:
State A: 97 mph up in the zone (“rise”) → .180 BA, 35% Whiff
State B: 95 mph middle-middle (“BP fastball”) → .450 BA, 0% Whiff
Luis SEVERINO Stats Observation collapses the wave function: Hitters must guess which version they’ll get.

🌀 2. The “Slider Vortex” Effect

His slider doesn’t just break—it warps spacetime:
Spin Efficiency: 45% (gyro-slider hybrid)
Horizontal Movement: 8.1 inches (94th percentile)
Hitter Brain Meltdowns: 68% chase rate when buried low/away
Physics Violation: The pitch defies Newton’s 3rd Law—it gets nastier the more it’s thrown.

The “D&D Alignment” of His Pitches

Fastball: Chaotic Neutral (Unpredictable, occasionally explosive)
Slider: Lawful Evil (Precise, murderous intent)
Changeup: True Neutral (Exists but rarely used)
Wild Card: The 2% Sinker is a secret NPC waiting for its quest.

The “Frankenstein Pitch” Experiment

What if SEVERINO merged his slider and changeup?
“Slang e up” Prototype:
Grip: Split-slider hybrid
VELO: 86-88 mph
Movement: -5″ vert, +12″ horizontal

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